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NV-4 — Oracle Failure: Metric Fragmentation (Wrong Objective Function → Hidden Decay) (Almost-Code Canonical) v1.0

When Oracles fail, the system optimises the wrong thing while decaying.

Summary (Canonical)

Oracle failure occurs when the metric/definition layer is missing, corrupted, or fragmented.
Then systems optimise visible outputs (scores, KPIs, PR) while transfer reliability, repair latency, and bind strength silently degrade.
This creates hidden decay: P2-looking performance that is actually P1 under load, pushing civilisation into slow attrition drift.

1) The Root Error (Negative Void)

The absent function

Missing: a single coherent truth/threshold layer.

Oracle must provide:

  • definitions (what counts)
  • scope control (what doesn’t count)
  • thresholds (pass/fail envelopes)
  • promotion gates (what can scale)
  • stop-loss rules (when to truncate)

When this is absent or competing, the system is blind.

2) Core Mechanism: Wrong Objective Function

Let:

  • (M_{visible}) = easy-to-measure proxy metrics
  • (M_{true}) = true stability metrics (transfer, load stability, repair latency, redundancy)

Oracle failure means:
[
Optimise(M_{visible}) \ \not\Rightarrow\ Improve(M_{true})
]

So the system “wins” its dashboard while losing its capability lattice.

3) The Metric Fragmentation Pattern (Common)

Oracle fragmentation shows up as:

  • many competing rubrics
  • frequent KPI changes
  • departments gaming different targets
  • no single definition of “quality”
  • incentives that reward speed over correctness
  • audits measuring the wrong surface

This injects symmetry breaks into execution lanes (ΔS storms), raising (\rho).

4) Observable Signs Across Zoom

Z0 (student)

  • studies for marks, not mastery
  • can score in one format but fails transfer
  • memorises templates; collapses in novel tasks

Z2 (school/company)

  • teaches to test / optimises KPI
  • suppresses repair work (unmeasured)
  • hides errors to protect metrics
  • training becomes “checkbox compliance”

Z4 (nation)

  • credential inflation
  • policy churn based on political optics
  • productivity statistics divorced from capability
  • brittle dependence on a few competent nodes

5) Hidden Decay Corridor (How collapse forms)

  1. Oracle metrics drift from truth
  2. Institutions optimise proxies
  3. Repair work is deprioritised (invisible)
  4. Transfer reliability declines
  5. Redundancy thins (over-concentration)
  6. Repair latency rises above stress cycle length
  7. (Ġ) falls, (R=Ḋ/Ġ) rises
  8. Mode II slow attrition drift
  9. Shock flips drift into Mode III cascade

This is “quiet collapse.”

6) Failure Mode Trace (Required)

Oracle fragmented → wrong metrics dominate → proxy optimisation → repair suppressed → transfer reliability drops → redundancy thins → repair latency rises → regeneration falls below decay (Ġ < Ḋ) → Mode II attrition drift → shock → Mode III cascade.

7) Safety Conditions (Prevent NV-4)

Oracle layer must enforce:

  1. Single-source metric truth (one coherent rubric set)
  2. Truth metrics included (transfer, load stability, repair latency, redundancy)
  3. Promotion gates (no scaling without stress-gate pass)
  4. Stop-loss rules (Fence triggers tied to SBS)
  5. Metric-change discipline (respect symmetry budget; avoid KPI storms)

Almost-Code Spec Block (Copyable)

NegativeVoid.NV4.OracleMetricFragmentation.v1.0

Negative Void:
  Oracle failure = missing/corrupted/fragmented metric + definition + threshold layer
Mechanism:
  optimise(M_visible) while M_true decays
  => hidden decay: P2-looking system becomes P1 under load
Observable Signs:
  competing rubrics/KPIs, frequent metric churn, gaming, suppressed repair work,
  transfer failure, rising repair latency, thinning redundancy
Failure Mode Trace:
  Oracle fragmented -> proxy optimisation -> repair suppressed -> transfer drops ->
  redundancy thins -> repair latency rises -> Ġ falls below Ḋ ->
  Mode II drift -> shock -> Mode III cascade

FAQ (Short)

Q1: Are KPIs bad?
No. KPIs are dangerous only when they replace truth metrics and suppress repair/transfer measures.

Q2: What is the simplest Oracle “truth metric”?
Transfer reliability under load. If it fails, your system is lying to itself.

Q3: Why does metric churn increase collapse risk?
It injects symmetry breaks into Operator lanes, raising (\rho) and accumulating shear.

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