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NV-19 — Shadow-Layer Divergence: Overt–Covert Misalignment (Governance Lattice Instability) (Almost-Code Canonical) v1.0

When the overt system and the shadow system disagree, the lattice becomes unstable.

Summary (Canonical)

Governance collapses into instability when overt rules (what is said) and covert rules (what is actually enforced) diverge.
This creates:

  • semantic noise (“rules mean nothing”)
  • metric gaming (Oracle corruption)
  • exception explosion (Operator collapse)
  • trust/bind deletion (HRL thinning)

Overt–covert misalignment is a core generator of hidden fragility and fast cascade risk.

1) The Root Error (Negative Void)

The absent function

Missing: overt–covert alignment enforcement.

A stable governance lattice requires:

  • one coherent rule reality
  • predictable enforcement
  • transparent gates (who decides, with what criteria)
  • stable incentives aligned to stated goals

When covert dynamics override overt statements, the system’s “API” lies.

2) Core Mechanism (Rule bifurcation → bind deletion)

Define:

  • (R_{overt}) = published rules/standards
  • (R_{covert}) = actual decision/enforcement rules
  • (ΔR = distance(R_{overt}, R_{covert}))

As (ΔR\uparrow):

  • trust binds weaken
  • compliance becomes strategic, not cooperative
  • coordination cost rises
  • repair signals are suppressed
  • corruption and shadow routing become rational survival

This is bind deletion at the governance layer.

3) Observable Signs

Z0 (individual)

  • “what you say is not what you mean”
  • people learn to read power, not rules
  • honest effort is punished; gaming is rewarded

Z2 (institution)

  • unofficial approvals matter more than process
  • audits pass while reality decays
  • staff stop reporting problems
  • exception culture grows (“just do it this way”)

Z4 (nation)

  • laws exist but enforcement is selective
  • public trust drops
  • informal networks replace formal institutions
  • institutional capacity thins (Civλ rises)

4) Divergence Cascade Corridor

  1. Overt rule set published (claims)
  2. Covert incentives contradict it (reality)
  3. People optimise covert reality (gaming)
  4. Oracle metrics become proxies/PR
  5. Operator lanes accumulate exceptions
  6. Semantic noise + mistrust rises
  7. Repair latency explodes (truth suppressed)
  8. Drift normalises (P1 baseline)
  9. Shock arrives → fast cascade (Mode III possible)

5) Hidden Fragility (Why it can look stable)

Overt–covert divergence can look stable because:

  • outputs still happen (via shadow routing)
  • elites maintain performance temporarily
  • failures are externalised downstream

But the real state is:

  • bind deletion
  • rising coordination cost
  • thinning regenerative mass
  • escalating brittleness

So stability is cosmetic, not structural.

6) Failure Mode Trace (Required)

Overt rules diverge from covert enforcement → people game reality → trust binds delete → metrics corrupt → exceptions explode → repair truth suppressed → latency rises → P2-looking becomes P1 → shock → P0 cascade.

7) Safety Conditions (Prevent NV-19)

To prevent shadow-layer divergence:

  1. Rule reality alignment (overt statements must match enforcement)
  2. Enforcement predictability (equal application, clear thresholds)
  3. Oracle integrity (truth metrics, anti-gaming design)
  4. Protected truth channels (whistle paths; weak-signal reporting safe)
  5. Exception discipline (caps + consolidation deadlines)
  6. Public auditability of key gates (who decides, why, with what criteria)

These convert governance into a stable lattice, not a theatre.

Almost-Code Spec Block (Copyable)

NegativeVoid.NV19.ShadowLayerDivergence.OvertCovertMisalign.v1.0

Negative Void:
  Overt rules (R_overt) diverge from covert enforcement rules (R_covert)
  Missing: alignment enforcement + predictable gates + truth-protection
Model:
  ΔR := distance(R_overt, R_covert)
  if ΔR increases -> trust binds weaken -> gaming increases -> coordination cost rises
  -> metrics corrupt -> exceptions explode -> repair truth suppressed -> drift/collapse risk rises
Failure Mode Trace:
  overt-covert divergence -> gaming -> bind deletion -> oracle corruption ->
  operator exceptions -> truth suppressed -> repair latency -> P1 baseline -> shock -> P0 cascade
Safety Conditions:
  rule alignment + predictable enforcement + oracle integrity + truth channels +
  exception consolidation + auditable decision gates

FAQ (Short)

Q1: Isn’t “shadow” always present?
Yes. The failure is not the existence of shadow layers—it’s misalignment where shadow overrides and contradicts overt rules.

Q2: Why does this accelerate collapse?
Because it deletes trust binds and suppresses repair signals, making (T_{repair}) explode while errors accumulate.

Q3: What’s the fastest detector?
When people ask, “What do you really want?” instead of reading the stated rules, divergence is already high.

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